Executive Summary

Precious metals enter the week of June 2-6 with remarkable year-to-date gains intact but facing critical tests from Tuesday's inflation data, Thursday's ECB rate decision, and Friday's US jobs report. Gold maintains its position at $3,356 per ounce after consolidating from April's all-time high of $3,500, while silver's surge above $35 targets the psychologically important $40 level. Platinum continues its spectacular breakout as the star performer of 2025, up nearly 50% year-to-date at $1,360. The metals complex faces a pivotal week as markets navigate the "eye of the hurricane" calm between trade policy uncertainties and potential stagflation concerns that Fed Chair Powell will address in Monday evening's speech.

Current Market Position

Prices as of Monday, June 2, 2025 at 9:00 AM ET

Technical Analysis

Gold: Consolidation Near Record Territory

Gold's technical picture reflects healthy consolidation after April's meteoric rise to $3,499.88. The metal trades within a $3,300-$3,450 range, with immediate resistance at $3,365-$3,367 and major resistance at the $3,435-$3,420 target zone. Support emerges at the psychological $3,300 level, with the 100-day moving average providing backstop near $3,255.

Technical indicators suggest neutral-to-bearish near-term momentum, with RSI at 42 and stochastics at 18 approaching oversold territory. The MACD hovers in negative territory near the zero line, indicating consolidation rather than reversal. The symmetrical triangle pattern forming suggests an imminent directional breakout, with volume patterns favoring upside resolution given the primary uptrend remains intact.

Silver: Breakout Targets Historic Levels

Silver's technical breakout above the critical $35.445 level (Q4 2012 high) opens the path toward the $37.48 near-term target (Q1 2012 high) and eventually the 2011 all-time high at $49.82. The bullish quarterly key reversal pattern in Q2 2025 provides a powerful long-term signal, while the improving gold-silver ratio from 105 to 91 suggests continued outperformance.

Platinum and Palladium: Continuation Signals

Platinum's textbook breakout above $1,000 resistance and subsequent surge past the Q1 2021 high of $1,348 targets the 2014 peak at $1,516. The cup-and-handle formation completion, combined with a potential golden cross in moving averages, suggests the decade-long consolidation has definitively ended. Palladium's quarterly key reversal pattern mirrors its sister metals, with resistance at the late 2024 high of $1,255 providing the next upside target.

Week Ahead Calendar

Trading Scenarios

Key Market Themes

Trade Policy Uncertainty at Inflection Point

The relative market calm represents "the eye of the hurricane" rather than genuine resolution. President Trump's announcement doubling steel and aluminum tariffs to 50% effective June 4 creates immediate uncertainty. The $2,500 estimated annual household cost from existing tariffs looms large over inflation expectations. Currency markets reflect this uncertainty, with the dollar index declining for five consecutive months through May – its longest losing streak in five years.

Federal Reserve Navigates Stagflation Risks

The Fed's May meeting acknowledged that "uncertainty about the economic outlook has increased further" while noting "risks of higher unemployment and higher inflation have risen." Powell's potential description of a stagflation scenario frames the central bank's dilemma. With rates held at 4.25%-4.50%, markets price just 1.76 rate cuts for 2025, down from earlier expectations.

Precious Metals Rally Broadens Beyond Gold

The 2025 rally distinguishes itself through breadth, with all four major precious metals posting double-digit gains. Platinum's 49.8% surge breaks a decade-long consolidation, driven by supply constraints and green energy demand. Central bank gold demand remains the cornerstone, with Q1 2025 purchases maintaining the 1,000+ metric ton annual pace.

Week Ahead Outlook

Precious metals enter a pivotal week with strong technical and fundamental tailwinds but facing near-term event risks. The sector's remarkable H1 2025 performance – led by platinum's 50% surge – reflects both monetary and industrial demand dynamics that appear sustainable through year-end.

Central bank gold accumulation shows no signs of slowing, while silver's industrial applications in the energy transition create a compelling dual investment thesis. The convergence of trade uncertainty, inflation concerns, and divergent central bank policies creates an ideal environment for precious metals outperformance.

Technical patterns across the complex suggest consolidation is nearing completion, with directional breakouts likely triggered by this week's data. Traders should prepare for elevated volatility around key releases while maintaining perspective on the powerful secular trends supporting precious metals in an era of fiscal profligacy, geopolitical tensions, and currency debasement.